India Manipulates Trade Data to Exploit American Workers

The U.S.-India relationship has long been touted as a strategic partnership beneficial to both nations. However, this narrative masks a troubling reality: the partnership is increasingly tilted in India's favor. According to Amanda Bartolotta's analysis, recent claims from the India-based Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) suggest a U.S. trade surplus with India of $35-$40 billion, yet the official U.S. trade deficit with India reached $46.08 billion in 2024. This disparity is not merely a matter of accounting; it reflects a systematic exploitation of U.S. workers enabled by misleading metrics and selective data interpretation.

Misleading Trade Surplus Claims

The GTRI's assertions of a surplus hinge on dubious accounting methods that include offshore labor operations as American exports. This manipulation overlooks the long-term damage to U.S. wages and employment. As reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, imports from India rose to $128.2 billion, further widening the trade gap. While India consumes more U.S. technology, the fundamental imbalance persists, highlighting a need for American policymakers to approach these figures with skepticism.

Reframing the Trade Deficit

The GTRI's attempt to reshape the trade deficit by including tangential revenue streams, such as digital services and student tuition payments, is a tactic designed to obscure the true nature of the economic relationship. While it's true that U.S. exports to India increased, this does not negate the significant imports that are contributing to job losses in the U.S. The notion that student spending should be classified as export revenue is a blatant misrepresentation. As per standards set by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, such spending is categorized as personal travel, not a legitimate export.

The Impact on American Workers

The consequences of these misleading claims are severe for American workers. The offshoring of jobs to India through Global Capability Centers (GCCs) represents a direct threat to the U.S. middle class. Companies like Amazon and Microsoft are shifting high-paying jobs overseas to exploit lower labor costs, with reports indicating a wage reduction of 50-80% for positions traditionally held by Americans. Rather than generating revenue for the U.S., these operations result in significant job losses and a hollowing out of our labor market.

Consequences of Distorted Trade Data

The manipulation of trade metrics serves a broader geopolitical agenda for India. By inflating perceived U.S. gains, India aims to neutralize calls for market access reform and delay enforcement actions that could disrupt its export-driven economy. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi critiques American protectionist policies, he simultaneously maintains high tariffs and local regulatory barriers that prevent fair competition. This contradiction underscores the need for U.S. leaders to recognize the tactical nature of India’s economic strategy.

The Reality of American Economic Sovereignty

Unless American officials challenge the distorted narratives presented by entities like GTRI, the trade relationship will remain fundamentally unequal. The ongoing manipulation of trade data is not mere statistical misrepresentation; it is a calculated move to undermine U.S. economic sovereignty. Policymakers must rigorously evaluate these claims and demand transparency if they are to protect American workers and uphold the principles of fair trade.